General Elections 2023: Key Points

The main parties representing the right-wing bloc, PP and Vox, together have 169 seats. This does not allow them to reach the absolute majority (176 seats), and the distribution of seats among the rest of the political forces also complicates an investiture by simple majority of the popular candidate Alberto Núñez Feijoo. In this scenario, in order for the candidate of the second most voted force, Pedro Sánchez, to be able to form a government, he would need the support and the affirmative vote of several of the pro-independence or nationalist parties. A particularly difficult scenario that could open the door to a second general elections.

The regional and municipal elections held on May 28th drew a new political scenario in Spain in which the conservative space was proclaimed the winner, unlike in 2019, when progressive forces were the most voted. The result of these elections allowed the Partido Popular (PP), the main winner of the elections, to take over the government, either alone or in coalition with VOX, of Autonomous Communities such as the Valencian Region, Balearic Islands or Extremadura, which until now were led by the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE), and of relevant City Councils such as Valencia or Seville.

In reaction to the results of the regional and municipal elections, on May 29, Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) called early general elections for July 23, initially scheduled for the end of the year, after the Spanish presidency of the Council of the European Union. However, the anticipation of the general elections has meant that they have been held when this presidency, which began on July 1, has just begun. With the calling of these general elections, a legislature that began after the elections of November 10, 2019, which resulted in the investiture of Pedro Sánchez as President and a coalition government between PSOE and Unidas Podemos, has come to an end.

It should be recalled that the general elections of November 10, 2019, were a consequence of the forced repetition of the general elections held on April 28, 2019, after no candidate obtained a sufficient majority in the Congress of Deputies to be elected President. Likewise, the general elections of April 28, 2019, were also called in advance by Pedro Sánchez, who had been governing in minority since the June 2018 motion of censure against Mariano Rajoy (PP).

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Results: Congress

Results: Senate

Key Points

01

On July 23, 2023, general elections were held in Spain. The turnout was 70.4% of the census, which represents an increase of more than 4 points compared to the last general elections that took place on November 10, 2019, when 66.23% of the census went to the polls.

02

Partido Popular (PP, conservative) has emerged as the winner with 136 seats in the Congress of Deputies (33% of the votes), obtaining 47 seats more than those obtained in the November 2019 elections (89 seats). However, the difference with Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE, socialist), which has been in second position, was barely 14 seats and 300,000 votes. PP has benefited from the recovery of part of the conservative vote, after the disappearance of Ciudadanos (liberal) and the fall of Vox (far right).

03

PSOE is in second place with 122 seats (31.7% of the votes). It obtains 2 seats more compared to those obtained in the November 2019 elections (120 seats), at a distance of 89 seats from the third most voted force, Vox. Therefore, PSOE practically maintains its current representation in the Congress of Deputies, being boosted by its results in Catalonia.

04

Vox remains the third most represented party in the Congress of Deputies with 33 seats (12.4% of votes), and its representation is reduced by 19 seats (it obtained 52 seats in November 2019), as a direct effect of the return of votes to PP as the so-called “useful vote”. Likewise, the final distribution of seats among the political forces hinders its role as a necessary partner for the formation of a possible government led by PP.

05

The fourth political force is Sumar (left-wing coalition), which obtained 31 seats (12.3% of votes), which represents a loss of 7 seats with respect to the November 2019 elections (Unidas Podemos and its allies – including Más País which was allied with Compromís – jointly obtained 38 seats). Despite the drop in seats, Sumar still remains as a fundamental partner for a government led by PSOE.

06

PP has been the most voted political party in all those Autonomous Communities in which it was also the most voted on the regional and local elections that took place on May 28 (Region of Madrid, La Rioja, Aragón, Balearic Islands, Cantabria, Region of Valencia and the Region of Murcia), consolidating the recovery of these territories with respect to the elections of November 2019, in which it only gained in Castilla y León, Cantabria and Galicia. In these regions, it revalidates its victory, apart from imposing itself in Andalusia, a region of traditional socialist predominance. However, PSOE in Andalusia managed to hold its ground and did not experience a very sharp decline (it only lost 4 seats). PSOE has only won in 4 regions: Catalonia, Navarra, Extremadura, and the Canary Islands. With respect to the last regional elections, it consolidates its leadership in Extremadura and the Canary Islands, but it loses it in Asturias and Castilla-La Mancha, in which now PP has been the most voted party.

07

The results at national level are also indicative of the immediate future of some regions which did not take part in the regional and local elections of May 28. The governability in Catalonia is compromised by the reinforcement of the weakness of Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC, catalan nationalist left-wing party) after two consecutive elections (May 28 and July 23) in which the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC, catalan socialists) prevails, obtaining 19 seats. ERC goes from being the first force in 2019 (13 seats) to become the third force (7 seats), behind Sumar in number of votes. Thus, a change of leadership with respect to 2019 is consolidated and the idea of early elections or a government crisis gains more and more strength. Likewise, a certain recovery of PP in the territory is also consolidated. It obtains 6 seats, compared to the 2 obtained in November 2019, but it is far from the socialists and from its best results obtained in Catalonia in other elections. Neither the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular (CUP, catalan far-left) nor the Partit Demòcrata (PDeCAT, split of the catalan nationalist right-wing party) have obtained representation.

08

In the Basque Country, one year before the next regional elections (scheduled for July 2024), Euskal Herria Bildu (EH Bildu, basque nationalist left-wing party) consolidates its advance initiated in the last local elections. There is a triple tie at 5 seats between EH Bildu, the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV, right-wing party) and the Socialist Party of Euskadi – Euskadiko Ezkerra (PSE-EE), in which PSE-EE imposes itself as the first force in number of votes and snatches the leadership from PNV, which ceases to be the most voted party and loses one seat compared to the November 2019 elections.

09

The main parties representing the right-wing bloc, PP and Vox, together have 169 seats. This does not allow them to reach the absolute majority (176 seats), and the distribution of seats among the rest of the political forces also complicates an investiture by simple majority of the popular candidate Alberto Núñez Feijoo. In this scenario, in order for the candidate of the second most voted force, Pedro Sánchez, to be able to form a government, he would need the support and the affirmative vote of several of the pro-independence or nationalist parties. A particularly difficult scenario that could open the door to a second general elections.

10

In the Senate, PP obtains the absolute majority and becomes the first force with 120 senators, 37 more than in the previous elections. The PSOE moves to the second position with 72 senators, 21 less than in November 2019.

Map of results. Winning party in each region and distribution of seats by province.

Participation

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